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That scenario now appears alarmingly close. On the evening of June 12th, Israel launched dozens of air strikes on Iranian military and nuclear sites. The attack threatens to inflame the Gulf, which pumps a third of the world’s oil. Brent crude, the global benchmark, rose by 8% on June 13th, to $74 a barrel (see chart). How high might it now go?

Israel and Iran continue to fire a volley of missiles and drones at one another, targeting energy infrastructure as well as residential areas. The conflict, which has killed over 220 people so far since Friday (June 13),